RethinkX: A Clearer View of the EV Future

Dean Muller, President,

RethinkX is a respected, independent think tank known for its highly accurate forecasts on technology-driven disruption. Unlike many day-to-day debates about electric vehicles (EVs), RethinkX offers a data-driven perspective that helps us look beyond immediate trends.

They analyze how quickly and broadly new technologies will impact major sectors like transportation, energy, and food. Their past predictions have consistently been more accurate than traditional forecasts, particularly in terms of the pace and scale of technological shifts.

RethinkX’s 2030 Transportation Forecast

RethinkX predicts a significant shift in U.S. transportation by 2030:

• Individually owned internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will still make up 40% of the U.S. fleet.

• However, these ICE vehicles will account for only 5% of passenger miles traveled.

This means that while many people still own gasoline-powered cars, they'll be driving them far less.

Why This Shift is Happening

Several key factors are driving this transformation:

• Cost Reductions: EVs are rapidly becoming more affordable to buy and operate than ICE vehicles.

• Longer EV Lifespan: Electric powertrains are more durable and last significantly longer than traditional engines, particularly in frequently used vehicles such as those in ride-hailing services.

• Lower Operating Costs: EVs have lower maintenance needs and are cheaper to fuel (charge) compared to ICE vehicles.

RethinkX 's research helps us understand these profound changes, guiding leaders toward a more stable and equitable future.